Deaths are a lagging sign of the virus progression because people who die of COVID 19 were typically infected three weeks earlier. But because death counts are not distorted by uneven testing practices, they are very clearly observed indicator, said Nicholas Reich, a biostatistician at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, who has begun to synthesize the projections of deaths produced by several modeling teams on a weekly basis. The model released last Tuesday sees the number drifting down from about 10,000 this week to about 7,000 in the first week of June..
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